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INVENTORY or ABSORPATION RATE
A way to look how the homes are selling. How much do I have? I much did I use?  Supply vs Demand. Simple.......right?

Appraisers call this Absorption Rate! The numbers below would be similiar for the 1004MC form appraiser use.  (Learn more)

Another method is simple inventory, however it assumes all the active inventory will sell, which it does not. Therefore this method will slightly overstate the inventory, but is more accurate than using the DOM, or Cumulative DOM as reported in MLS.  This method also counts the days from "Off Market" to "Close Date", however it will ALWAYS do this, therefore the trend is the same. 

Note:  Ada & Canyon is running about 40 days from "Off Market" to "Close Date"

MLS will provide the DOM of typically the LAST listing, not the 3 or 4 prior listings. This is more apparent in a downward market.  I would like to share detail examples, but it violates IMLS rules and regulations. (per IMLS)  However, agents which have access to IMLS can search the following addresses to understand the issue more.   

      1) 2301 W Hillway
     
2) 7490 N Waterlilly Ave. 
      
3) 25933 Chandler Drive 
     
4) 3272 S Quarterswing Way
    
 5) 2030 W Havenwood Ave
     
6) 1862 Grand Teton
      7)
12458 N Upper Ridge
      8) 304 S Rivermont Ln

Another Simple Example.....As of 01/01/2012

Six Months Ada County Sales (3,205 sales)
      
 Avg DOM = 76
      
Median DOM = 41

Current Active Inventory in Ada County (2,403 listings)
     Avg DOM = 106
     Median DOM = 75

Therefore, ACTIVE inventory is 39% higher than SOLD inventory. (106/76=139%)   This shows, do not trust the DOM on sold inventory, it understates the "real" value.

Inventory is one key in understanding if a market is adding, reducing or holding steady. Inventory impacts days on the market (DOM), inventory along with the average sold price and average sales ratio are tools to understand the market.

Where does Ada County stand? Depends on what market.  Ada County overall inventory as Jan 1, 2012 is about 4.9 months, just looking at single family homes, about 4.7 months.  Keep in mind, this included the time from "Off Market Date" to "Close Date", which averages 40 days or 1.3 months. 

On average, a single family home in Ada County is getting offers in  3.4 months, Canyon County is 3.1 months from list date to offer date. 

Since "To Be Built" will distort the inventory, below is the summary data  on 01/01/2012.
                               Active      Pending    Percent Pending
          
Ada               182         28                 13%
         Canyon          77           6                    10%

 

 

 

Data Source : Intermountain MLS

Report Date: January 1, 2012

Date Filter: 1/1/2011 - 12/31/2011

www.hennesseyappraisals.com

County

Status & Est Inventory

TYPE OF LISTING

TOTAL

Single Family

Single Family with Acreage

Condo

Townhouse

Ada

Sold

6237

241

234

320

7032

Active

1807

135

112

89

2143

Pending

647

22

14

23

706

Inventory*

4.7

7.8

6.5

4.2

4.9

Canyon

Sold

2902

367

0

73

3342

Active

738

144

2

16

900

Pending

321

63

0

3

387

Inventory*

4.4

6.8

N/A

3.1

4.6

*Estimated from 12 months sales. 12 Month Sales / (Current Active + Current Pending )= Inventory

Inventory Units = Months

Single Family Only

County

MLS Area

Current Active/Pend Listings

12 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 12 Months Sales
(Months)

6 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 6 Months Sales
(Months)

3 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 3 Months Sales
(Months)

Ada

Several

2454

6237

4.7

3199

4.6

1447

5.1

Canyon

Several

1059

2902

4.4

1374

4.6

625

5.1

Gem

Several

55

151

4.4

73

4.5

36

4.6

Elmore

Several

199

208

11.5

114

10.5

59

10.1

Payette

Several

127

187

8.1

100

7.6

44

8.7

Single Family Only - Date Range: 1/1/2011- 12/31/2011 Intermountain MLS

County

City

MLS Area

Active / Pending

12 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 12 Months Sales
(Months)

6 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 6 Months Sales
(Months)

3 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 3 Months Sales
(Months)

Ada

Boise

100

142

333

5.1

169

5.0

79

5.4

200

83

190

5.2

104

4.8

48

5.2

300

162

440

4.4

237

4.1

108

4.5

400

156

449

4.2

232

4.0

96

4.9

500

64

191

4.0

104

3.7

62

3.1

550

249

573

5.2

295

5.1

133

5.6

600

109

325

4.0

160

4.1

73

4.5

650

205

654

3.8

341

3.6

149

4.1

800

183

407

5.4

207

5.3

90

6.1

Eagle

900

197

391

6.0

198

6.0

89

6.6

Star

950

101

170

7.1

88

6.9

38

8.0

Meridian

1000

110

242

5.5

127

5.2

51

6.5

1010

24

57

5.1

27

5.3

11

6.5

1020

196

524

4.5

292

4.0

147

4.0

1030

304

892

4.1

436

4.2

187

4.9

Kuna

1100

156

382

4.9

176

5.3

82

5.7

Canyon

Nampa

1250

170

495

4.1

236

4.3

110

4.6

1260

278

756

4.4

368

4.5

166

5.0

1270

196

529

4.4

234

5.0

100

5.9

Melba

1265

3

10

3.6

4

4.5

3

3.0

Caldwell

1275

84

219

4.6

107

4.7

53

4.8

1280

212

605

4.2

280

4.5

126

5.0

Middleton

1285

65

203

3.8

99

3.9

52

3.8

Other

1290

13

27

5.8

16

4.9

6

6.5

Single Family Only - Date Range: 1/1/2011- 12/31/2011 Intermountain MLS

County

City

Price Range

Active

12 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 12 Months Sales
(Months)

6 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 6 Months Sales
(Months)

3 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 3 Months Sales
(Months)

Ada

Several

$0 - $99,999

343

1315

3.1

620

3.3

278

3.7

$100,00 - $199,999

1198

3241

4.4

1680

4.3

768

4.7

$200,000 - $299,999

508

1052

5.8

559

5.5

252

6.0

$300,000 - $449,999

230

447

6.2

245

5.6

113

6.1

$450,000 - over

114

124

11.0

64

10.7

25

13.7

Canyon

Several

$0 - $99,999

620

2096

3.5

978

3.8

450

4.1

$100,00 - $199,999

355

694

6.1

344

6.2

153

7.0

$200,000 - $299,999

43

66

7.8

32

8.1

18

7.2

$300,000 - $449,999

10

8

15.0

5

12.0

3

10.0

$450,000 - over

2

0

N/A

0

N/A

0

N/A


 

 



Single Family with ACREAGE

Must have More than 1 Acre.

County

MLS Area

Current Active/Pend Listings

12 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 12 Months Sales
(Months)

6 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 6 Months Sales
(Months)

3 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 3 Months Sales
(Months)

Ada

Several

200

299

8.0

160

7.5

74

8.1

Canyon

Several

226

413

6.6

211

6.4

104

6.5

Gem

Several

52

98

6.4

52

6.0

25

6.2

Elmore

Several

53

42

15.1

25

12.7

16

9.9

Payette

Several

61

56

13.1

26

14.1

10

18.3

Single Family with ACREAGE - Date Range: 1/1/2011 - 12/31/2011. Intermountain MLS

County

City

Price Range

Current Active/Pend Listings

12 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 12 Months Sales
(Months)

6 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 6 Months Sales
(Months)

3 Month Sales

Est Inventory using 3 Months Sales
(Months)

Ada

Several

$0 - $99,999

2

18

1.3

10

1.2

4

1.5

$100,00 - $199,999

27

60

5.4

27

6.0

14

5.8

$200,000 - $299,999

36

68

6.4

40

5.4

20

5.4

$300,000 - $449,999

45

86

6.3

51

5.3

21

6.4

$450,000 - over

81

67

14.5

33

14.7

16

15.2

Canyon

Several

$0 - $99,999

21

77

3.3

43

2.9

21

3.0

$100,00 - $199,999

71

167

5.1

80

5.3

41

5.2

$200,000 - $299,999

71

123

6.9

67

6.4

33

6.5

$300,000 - $449,999

33

44

9.0

21

9.4

9

11.0

$450,000 - over

14

3

56.0

1

84.0

1

336.0





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