Finished last quarters review of data, along with some year end summary data.
Enjoy.
The Hennessey Report
As you can see, CASH IS KING.
7% to 23% in Ada County and at 33% in Canyon County!
1 in 3 homes sold for CASH in Canyon County in 2011.
AMOUNT OF HOMES SOLD FOR "CASH" IN LAST 7 YEARS FROM IMLS DATA
County
YEAR-->
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ada
Cash Sales
1,016
824
570
531
744
1,285
1,657
Percent Cash
7.8%
7.5%
7.4%
9.2%
12.0%
19.1%
23.4%
Total Sales
12,997
10,959
7,726
5,753
6,202
6,721
7,085
Canyon
628
499
273
260
468
852
1,112
10.2%
8.9%
7.9%
11.2%
17.2%
26.8%
33.1%
6,167
5,577
3,461
2,330
2,719
3,184
3,364
Thanks for my friends at Ada County Assessor’s office for providing some data. This really helps me understand the dynamics of the market.
The two below graphs shows 1) TOTAL ACRES developed for subdivisions 2) TOTAL PARCELS developed for subdivisions.
1 Parcel = 1 Lot
At the time of this posting, I am not 100% sure that 1 Parcel equals 1 building lot, since there are of subdivisions with park parcels, common area parcels, etc.
However, I really don't care the EXACT number of buildings lots, just the overall trend direction.
Elmore County suprised me with a come from behind. They were able to finish 2011 Total Sales higher than 2010.
A distruibution curve is useful tool. The below graphs compare all the sales from each year by county. As you can see, the peak of the curve had dropped and moved left, and the area under the curve is smaller.
So...volume is down, the curve shift left (drop in avg sales price). We all want the curve to shift right, and increase the area below the curve (volume).
In reading the curves...you can see;
The graphs and data show how a home was sold (type of finance) in 2011 by Ada & Canyon County.
The CASH segments dominated Canyon County, especially the distress sales. 1 out 3 (33%) homes in Canyon County sold for CASH in 2011, compared to 23% in Ada County. This segment typically is around 7% in past years.
In Ada County, FHA and CASH were equal at 23%, which is very uncommon. This is clearly due to the high distress sale rate.
Distress
Typical
Grand Total
3,505
3,563
7,068
Conventional
1,214
1,687
2,901
FHA
928
741
1,669
Cash
944
709
1,653
VA
191
265
456
Idaho Housing Association
88
72
160
Other
96
27
123
Rural Development
36
32
68
Owner Finance
1
19
20
Private
7
5
12
Contract For Deed
4
Lease Purchase
2
2,473
886
3,359
881
230
1,111
670
900
650
234
884
94
67
161
77
42
119
79
17
49
50
15
9
24
3
5,978
4,449
10,427
41.04%
26.32%
36.30%
23.39%
33.08%
26.51%
23.61%
26.79%
24.64%
6.45%
4.79%
5.92%
2.26%
3.54%
2.68%
1.74%
2.86%
2.10%
0.96%
0.71%
0.88%
0.28%
1.49%
0.67%
0.17%
0.27%
0.20%
0.06%
0.03%
0.09%
0.05%
100.00%
The below two graphs show the price range homes are selling in, by distress or typical. Ada County is broken down into $20,000 price segments, Canyon County is broken down into $15,000 price segments.
In Ada County, over $140,000 there much more less distress.
In Canyon County, it's a mess. Distress sales dominate all the price segments.
The rough numbers show sales are up about 5%, however average sold price in Ada County is down about 4.5%.
Tons of year end numbers will be posted soon, along with "The Hennessey Report"
A big thanks to Tom Zumwalt, who took the time to post on youtube.
Check out the clip at here. <<< Click
One of these days, I will find the time to post on youtube to explain the charts I make.
However...I do post a few personal videos at www.youtube.com/henasea5, feel free to check them out. You can see our new baby girl...Eva Grace.
Updates were posted today. Click the links.
Top Graphs
Inventory
Distress Sale Data
This is worth pointing out, since I have not seen the lines cross in several months...I mean several years.
This means..the average sold price of single family homes in Oct-2011 is higher than the average sold price in 2010. (Ada County only)
I know it's only 1.3% higher..... but it's still nice to see happen!
New data was posted today.
Top Graphs Inventory Distress Sale Data
As of reported sales on 11/1/2011, Ada County is tracking about 5.37% higher sales than 2010, Canyon County is tracking 6.58% higher.
Single Family, SF w/ Acrage , Townhouse , Condo
Jan-Oct Sales
Diff
5620
5922
5.37%
2690
2867
6.58%
Ada County....Oct-2010 vs Oct-2011 has seen a 2.1% increase in average sold price in Single Family ($173,322 vs $177,064)
Canyon County....Oct-2010 vs Oct-2011 has seen a 10.6% decrease in average sold price in Single Family ($98,433 vs $88,009)
Single Family Quarterly Rolling Averages Aug/Sept/Oct-2010 vs Aug/Sept/Oct-2011
Ada County average sold price is down 3.1%
Ada County median sold price is down 5.2%
Canyon County average sold price is down 6.9%
Canyon County median sold price is down 10.0%
*All figures based on IMLS data as of 11/01/11
MLS data shows Mountain Home, ID struggles with multi-units over the last several years.
Background on Data
Quick Summary
I'm sure some of you read this clip from MSN website.
Now hiring: North Dakota oil boom creates thousands of jobs
I was amazed at what lenders and AMC's companies pay for appraisals in Williston, ND. The going rate is triple to four times as much in Boise, ID. The builders and agents beg appraisers to come to Williston, ND from other cities in North Dakota.
The turn-time for appraisals is in WEEKS and MONTHS.
The downside, no place to live, and winters are VERY harsh compared to other cities.
Staff Profiles | Contact Us | TOP Graphs - Awesome! | 10 Year Overview - Big Picture | Have a House Measured! | Local Assessors | The Hennessey Report | Client Login | Order an Appraisal | Services | Our Service Area | Blog
Copyright © 2012 Hennessey AppraisalsPortions Copyright © 2012 a la mode, inc.Another XSite by a la mode, inc. | Admin Login| Terms of Use| Site Map
